ارائه مدلی برای تعیین خرج ویژه بر اساس پارامترهای ژئومکانیکی با استفاده از روش آنالیز مولفه¬های اصلی

محمد حیاتی, امید روشنی

چکیده


يکي از مهمترين پارامترهاي فني و اقتصادي در طراحي الگوهاي حفاري و انفجار تونل ها، خرج ويژه است. از این رو پيش بيني و بهينه سازي آن از اهميت بالايي برخوردار است. مقدار خرج ويژه به پارامترهاي متعددي از قبیل شرايط زمين شناسي، خصوصيات مکانيک سنگي و پارامترهای هندسي طراحي بستگي دارد. در اين تحقيق با تکيه بر خواص ژئومکانيکي توده سنگ در عملیات ساخت تونل آبرسان سد سیمره، مدلی مناسب برای تعیین خرج ویژه با استفاده از روش هاي آماري ارائه شده است. در اين راستا به منظور حذف اثر همخطي بين متغيرهاي ورودي در مدل­های پيش بيني، از روش آنالیز PCA استفاده کرده و برای ارزيابي و مقایسه مدل­هاي ساخته شده، از پارمترهاي ضريب تعيين مدل (R2) و متوسط مربعات خطا (MSE) بهره گرفته شده است. مقایسه مدل­ها نشان مي دهد که رفع همخطي بين متغيرهاي ورودي با بکارگیری روش PCA، نتايج پيش بيني بهتري را به همراه داشته است.


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