ارائه مدلی برای تعیین خرج ویژه بر اساس پارامترهای ژئومکانیکی با استفاده از روش آنالیز مولفه¬های اصلی
چکیده
يکي از مهمترين پارامترهاي فني و اقتصادي در طراحي الگوهاي حفاري و انفجار تونل ها، خرج ويژه است. از این رو پيش بيني و بهينه سازي آن از اهميت بالايي برخوردار است. مقدار خرج ويژه به پارامترهاي متعددي از قبیل شرايط زمين شناسي، خصوصيات مکانيک سنگي و پارامترهای هندسي طراحي بستگي دارد. در اين تحقيق با تکيه بر خواص ژئومکانيکي توده سنگ در عملیات ساخت تونل آبرسان سد سیمره، مدلی مناسب برای تعیین خرج ویژه با استفاده از روش هاي آماري ارائه شده است. در اين راستا به منظور حذف اثر همخطي بين متغيرهاي ورودي در مدلهای پيش بيني، از روش آنالیز PCA استفاده کرده و برای ارزيابي و مقایسه مدلهاي ساخته شده، از پارمترهاي ضريب تعيين مدل (R2) و متوسط مربعات خطا (MSE) بهره گرفته شده است. مقایسه مدلها نشان مي دهد که رفع همخطي بين متغيرهاي ورودي با بکارگیری روش PCA، نتايج پيش بيني بهتري را به همراه داشته است.
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